Wednesday, February 20, 2008

The Original Cold Warrior



After nearly 50 years in which he has dominated almost everything in Cuba, Castro appears to be going quietly. I think his people were well prepared for his resignation. The country was spared sudden shock and given time to prepare for the future.

Due to the smooth political transition, I can't imagine anything too radical taking place in the near future. I doubt any sort of extreme short-term change. However, I am still really interested in what the future holds. This Sunday, the National Assembly will most likely elect Raul Castro as Fidel's successor. It is of course possible, although unlikely, that Raul will not be the next president of Cuba. Fidel never mentioned a specific successor in his note of resignation and he has spoken of handing over power to a younger nation. If Raul is not elected, it opens up some interesting possibilities. Other likely candidates are Carlos Lage Davila and Felipe Perez Roque, both loyal admirers of Castro. However, I doubt they have enough support of those within government circles.

All in all, i'd say this is a time of great opportunity and risk for Cuba.


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